5+ Dinner Tidbits: Mgmt Confident in Phase III Success for Dravet Rare Epilepsy

Research evidence excerpt

5+ Dinner Tidbits: Mgmt Confident in Phase III Success for Dravet Rare Epilepsy

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK)

Equity Research

July 5, 2026

STOK built its Dravet TAM estimates with a bottom-up by scaling incidence to prevalence, using 85 Exhibit 13 - STOK's Estimates Dravet Syndrome

Prevalenceyears of live birth data/death rates across the 7 major markets (EU4, UK, US, and Japan) to estimate

what the addressable population would look like at approval, then broken down by age cohort. Within

the US, the age 25-and-younger cohort is ~6,000 (of which ~4,000 is pure pediatric). That said, pediatric

neurologists commonly continue caring for Dravet patients into their mid-20s given family bonds

and reluctance to transition to adult neurology care. STOK's analysis of large US claims databases

reinforces this data, capturing ~6,000 confirmed ICD-10 Dravet patients, and STOK cross-references

CPT/treatment codes with machine learning to identify undiagnosed candidates. The residual ~10,000

are predominantly older adults born before robust genetic testing, more likely miscoded as "intractable

epilepsy," and STOK feels confident it knows where 70-80% of the 25-and-under population is cared

for via linked National Provider Identifier (NPI) data. Physicians have told STOK that they anticipate

a +85-90% increase in genetic testing at approval when a disease-modifying therapy exists. Today,

testing is broadly reimbursed, but underutilized because there is nothing particularly actionable. STOK

is running an adult study in parallel to support the anticipated label for ages 2 and up (consistent with

its BTD designation). .

Source: Company reports

Exhibit 14 - STOK Estimates 6K US Dravet Syndrome Patients are Immediately Addressable at Launch

.