Volvo Cars Q2 Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Volvo Cars Q2 Preview

s Q3) and a

PREV 3.71

19.9% holding. Given Polestar is still loss-making, this adds ~1bn of headwind to 2026 and ~1.5bn

to 2027.

FY - Performance will be H2-weighted, aided by EX60 starting through summer, with volume

moving to be a small positive. Lapping the commercial pressure comp, and even some potential

EV-demand-led pricing relief should help. Risks include raw materials, and continued price/mix

weakness on BEV mix. On EX60 launch execution, we note order intake reported ahead of internal

expectations (and of the cheaper EX30 at a similar point in its release) and discussion for shortening

Torslanda summer shutdown ongoing with unions. FY26 EBIT is cut -21% mostly on PSNY equity

income and some price/mix to 7.5bn / 2.2% margin and FY27 -8% to 11.9bn / 3.4%.

Valuation - Volvo was authorised in May by the BIS in the US to sell connected vehicles despite

Geely ownership due to clean separation of tech architecture from parent and US data localisation.

PSNY's software was seen as more integrated and therefore not approved. Alongside the EU mulling

further local content requirements, these developments may inhibit attempted Geely synergies.

Execution on all of these and other cost outs from tariff reduction (XC60 localisation from late

2026), warranty (software quality), Kosice production, R&D (modular platform) are all necessary to

see a more viable margin profile. At 7.1x and 5.1x 27/28 cash R&D EPS, valuation still does not

compensate risk profile, nor the risk of synergy execution. PT -1 to SEK23 with est. cuts part offset

Philippe Houchois * | Equity Analyst

by equity holding movements. 44 (0) 20 7029 8983 | philippe.houchois@jefferies.com

Owen Paterson ^ | Equity Analyst

+44 (0)20 7548 4745 | opaterson@jefferies.com