German industrial production and orders (May) Signs of life?

Research evidence excerpt

German industrial production and orders (May) Signs of life?

Economics ● Germany

7 July 2026

on earlier in the year and is widespread across sectors. Nearly one in three chemicals and optical equipment company struggles with

supply chain shortages. It will likely take some time for international supply chains to return to complete normality after the US-Iran

deal, especially as news of attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz overnight highlight continued risks to traffic (Bloomberg, 7

July).

Structural headwinds such as lost competitiveness remain prevalent. And while industry at least need not fear an imminent trade war

with China after the EU and China agreed to co-operate on tackling bilateral trade issues with a view to meeting again in October,

headwinds from cheap Chinese competition continue to blow strongly (EU-China trade tensions, 7 July). Domestic structural issues

on energy also are unaddressed, with the government’s 2027 draft budget and its reform package lacking mention of a clear energy

strategy or relief from high payroll taxes (German draft budget 2027, 6 July).

Industry looks set to have supported activity in Q2, moderating recession risk. Following the April and May output upticks, if output

stayed flat in June, industrial production would increase by 0.7% q-o-q in Q2. Further out, the fiscal stimulus on infrastructure and

defence should provide further support.

1. Industrial output increased for a second 2.Energy-intensive and automotive output

consecutive month in May increased in May

Source: Macrobond, HSBC Source: Macrobond, HSBC

3. Manufacturing orders are trending 4. Foreign demand is recovering, domestic

upward demand is a little slower to gain speed