How much of a bounce? What does the June global PMI data tell us?

Research evidence excerpt

How much of a bounce? What does the June global PMI data tell us?

East tensions, this may sound surprising, but clearing

backlogs, repositioning containers, and restoring shipping cadence takes time. Transit calls through

the Strait of Hormuz are still 52% below pre-conflict levels. For most economies, however, supply-

chain constraints appear to have peaked in May, France being the main exception.

Some frontloading of purchases occurred in June as well, as the Memorandum of Understanding

was signed on the second half of the month. In the US, for example, panellists cited delays and port

congestion, which extended delivery times and prompted further increases in purchasing activity.

Mainland China and Japan also reported larger quantities of purchases. Meanwhile, stocks of

finished goods declined, consistent with ongoing efforts to optimise costs.

Meanwhile, inflationary pressures eased during the month, with both input and output costs falling to

a three-month low. That said, they remain far above historical averages across both developed and

emerging markets. Higher tariffs and increased raw material prices were also cited as key drivers.

3. Services PMI: Are higher costs impacting demand?

The global services sector continued to expand in June, with the global services PMI at 51.7,

supported by an increase in new orders. Even the decline in hiring moderated and future

business expectations improved in June.

We had expected to see higher costs squeeze the service sector, but with cost pressures

easing in June, this brought some relief to businesses and demand. However, prices are still

high and are impacting demand in some parts of the world, particularly in Europe. India and

mainland China also saw slowdowns in service-related activity.