June Transplant & Flight Monitor: Q2 Sales Likely Achievable

Research evidence excerpt

June Transplant & Flight Monitor: Q2 Sales Likely Achievable

C O M PA N Y N O T E

J u l y 7 , 2 0 2 6

TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) Overweight

CONCLUSION PRICE: US$71.23

Every month, we track organ transplant volumes and the number of flights taken by TARGET: US$120.00

TransMedics’ medical jet fleet. Transplant volumes grew HSD in Q2’26 versus Q1’26, ~7x EV/FY26E sales assuming $33M net debt

largely driven by heart and lung transplants. Liver also delivered a solid performance and ~36M shares outstanding

(up LSD), which is important given the company’s large exposure to this market. Turning

to flights, June flight counts hit record levels again and Q2 flight counts increased LDD Matt O'Brien

Sr. Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

sequentially, which is a positive indicator that TMDX continues to gain market share. 312 267-5080, matthew.obrien@psc.com

Overall, we believe consensus sales estimates for Q2 are achievable with modest upside Samantha Munoz, Ph.D.

potential or downside risk. Our regression analysis suggests that total revenues could Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

land between $180.4M-$185.9M, versus the Street’s $183.4M. We suspect the stock could 212 284-9342, samantha.munoz@psc.com

remain volatile in the short term, but believe TMDX’s business momentum remains on a Anna Runci

solid trajectory as it continues to transform the organ transplantation market. We reiterate Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

our OW rating. 212 466-7905, anna.runci@psc.com

Changes Previous Current

• Solid Q2 Transplant Volumes. Despite June’s sequential declines in organ transplant Rating — Overweight

volumes (a product of record setting levels in May), Q2’26 volumes are in a good spot. Price Tgt — US$120.00