AEON Financial Service (8570) 1Q results: Better progress than expected, but management emphasizes earnings are in line with guidance

Research evidence excerpt

AEON Financial Service (8570) 1Q results: Better progress than expected, but management emphasizes earnings are in line with guidance

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Asia Pacific Equity Research

Koki Sato AC 09 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

(81-3) 6736-8609

koki.sato@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

AEON Financial Service (8570) (Underweight; Price Target: ¥1,250)

Investment Thesis

Aeon Financial Service guides for FY2026 profit to fall sharply, laying bare the need to

address the earnings structure vulnerability of the domestic segment. The new MTP through

FY2030 aims to improve profitability by aggressively expanding the operating receivables

balance and curbing personnel costs, but we think attainment of the targets currently looks

unlikely. We believe some market participants also expect parent company Aeon to make

Aeon Financial Service a wholly owned subsidiary, but for our investment rating we do not

assume this will happen.

Valuation

We calculate our price target through December 2026 of ¥1,250 by applying a P/E of about

10x to our FY2027 EPS forecast. Our target P/E of 10x is the median of 9-11x, the range

we use when calculating price targets for the non-banks (leasing, consumer finance, credit

card and other companies) we cover.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Upside Scenario to Target Price/Rating

• Earnings growth due to greater-than-expected growth in business assets

• Greater-than-expected increase in shareholder returns

• Profit growth due to greater-than-expected decrease in costs

• Change in Aeon’s policy regarding parent-subsidiary double listing

Downside Scenario to Target Price/Rating

• Profit stagnation due to greater-than-expected downturn in income

• Greater-than-expected deterioration in the global economy