J.P. Morgan Australia FTM 10 Jul 26 The Antipodean Strategist and More

Research evidence excerpt

J.P. Morgan Australia FTM 10 Jul 26 The Antipodean Strategist and More

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Australia First to Market 10 July 2026

Top Stories

The Antipodean Strategist (Ben K Jarman)

Out of the gates

The RBNZ lifted the cash rate by 25bp this week and signaled further hikes are likely, but data-dependent. The upcoming 2Q

CPI is the next data print of note, with the Bank’s updated forecast of 1.3%q/q broadly aligned with our own tracking estimate.

This would see headline inflation accelerate toward 4%oya, which coupled with still loose policy settings and the RBNZ’s short-

term estimate of neutral, should be enough for a follow-up rate hike in September. NZ’s 2s/5s curve is steep relative to this

point in the hiking cycle, and biased to flatten as mortgage-related pay flow increases.

Global Research

Flows & Liquidity (Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou)

A bigger threat to crypto?

MicroStrategy’s bitcoin sales may create periodic flow risk, but in our opinion the larger structural threat to the crypto ecosystem

and by extension to bitcoin stems from whether the growth of tokenization and blockchain-based applications accrues to public

crypto networks or is absorbed by incumbent market infrastructure.

Milquetoast minutes reflect divided dots (Michael Feroli)

The minutes to the June 16-17 FOMC meeting were hawkish, but not surprisingly so considering the dot plot released three

weeks ago. While all participants supported keeping policy unchanged at the last meeting, it was also noted that “a few

participants” said there was a case for raising the funds rate, but those same participants supported leaving rates unchanged.

Recall that participants include both voters and non-voters, and given recent speeches, non-voters currently skew a little more

hawkish than voters.