Payments 2Q26 Spending Preview Expecting Modest Acceleration in Spending Growth; Stability Ex-Gas

Research evidence excerpt

Payments 2Q26 Spending Preview Expecting Modest Acceleration in Spending Growth; Stability Ex-Gas

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

09 July 2026

Payments 2Q26 Spending Preview

Expecting Modest Acceleration in Spending Growth;

Stability Ex-Gas

In this report, we compile intra-quarter data on consumer spending in the United Payments, Processors & IT Services

ACStates. Overall spending growth appears to have accelerated somewhat vs. last Tien-tsin Huang, CFA

quarter, ahead of expectations, and our base case assumes our coverage will (1-212) 622-6632

continue to frame the macro environment and consumer health as stable, though tien-tsin.huang@jpmorgan.com

uncertain, given geopolitical dynamics. Chase card data indicate overall 2Q Connor Allen AC

spending growth accelerated 90bps (or decelerated 20bps ex-gas). Intra-quarter (1-212) 270-2895

ecommerce data show just under 1ppt of acceleration vs. 1Q, modestly below connor.allen@jpmorgan.com

card-present growth, which accelerated by just over 1ppt, helped by gas. Brendan Biles

Restaurant spending growth slowed, with Chase card data indicating ~2ppt of (1-212) 270-0880

brendan.biles@jpmorgan.com

deceleration and Fiserv data showing 30bps of deceleration (through May);

Charles Pearce, CFAaccommodation/food service business starts increased 14% y/y (through May).

(1-212) 622-4368

Discretionary spending growth decelerated 10bps, while non-discretionary charles.pearce@jpmchase.com

spending accelerated 250bps, lifted by gas, according to Chase card data. See

Abbey Hochreiner

details and figures within. Next data point: card volumes from large issuer (1-212) 270-5798

earnings Tuesday 7/14, which in aggregate represent over 40% of V/MA U.S. abbey.hochreiner@jpmchase.com

volume. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• Takeaway.