ONEOK, Inc. Thoughts Into 2Q26: Seasonal Volume Recovery Drives Sequential Step Up; $10bn Internal Target in Focus

Research evidence excerpt

ONEOK, Inc. Thoughts Into 2Q26: Seasonal Volume Recovery Drives Sequential Step Up; $10bn Internal Target in Focus

Jeremy Tonet, CFA AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-4915 09 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

jeremy.b.tonet@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

Over time, ONEOK has successfully created value through

capitalizing on Bakken to Belvieu NGL logistic needs. As

growth slowed, OKE diversified the business through a series of

acquisitions, seeking to capture meaningful synergies by

combining complementary businesses. However, original 2026

EBITDA guidance landed well short of expectations, as lower

realized prices and corporate & other headwinds essentially

offset volume growth and synergy tailwinds to drive the

relatively flattish guide YoY. However, geopolitical

YTD 1m 3m 12m developments have lead to a spike in oil prices, though we

Abs 21.8% 2.0% 3.8% 10.3% believe increased drilling activity will require extended higher

Rel 11.6% -0.2% -6.7% -10.2%

prices. At this time, we see better opportunity elsewhere in our

Company Data coverage universe and maintain a Neutral rating.

Shares O/S (mn) 630

Valuation52-week range ($) 96.07-64.02

Market cap ($ mn) 56,387.75 We establish our Dec 2027 price target of $95/share on a

Exchange rate 1.00 discounted cash flow methodology in which we forecast DCF/

Free float (%) 99.8%

3M ADV (mn) 4.04 share for 10 years and then calculate a terminal value. The

3M ADV ($ mn) 354.6 terminal growth rate and required rate of return are based on

Volatility (90 Day) 30 leverage/liquidity risk, distribution coverage outlook,

Index S&P 500

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 12|11|0 volumetric/recontracting risk, commodity/marketing risk, take-

or-pay contract profile, and other factors.