European Banks Daily 9 July 2026

Research evidence excerpt

European Banks Daily 9 July 2026

Kian Abouhossein AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-4575 09 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

kian.abouhossein@jpmorgan.com

program in 1H26, targeting 50% TSR in 2026E (from 47% in 2025). Overall, we see balanced

earnings across the interest and non-interest lines and view its efforts to improve visibility on the

operating outlook and shareholder returns as positive. We adjust up our earnings estimates and

raise our PT to W180K on sustainable ROE trending up. At 0.7x 12MF P/B (vs 10% ROE),

valuation also remains compelling. Hence, we retain OW.

Industrial Bank of Korea:Lukewarm 2Q26 earnings outlook with limited positives in

dividend payout

Jihyun Cho (82-2) 758-5480

We expect weak 2Q26 earnings of W606bn, below Street estimates, reflecting: (1) a softer NIM

recovery amid higher funding-cost pressures, (2) weaker trading gains in a rising-rate backdrop,

and (3) FX-related losses. While solid loan growth should support NII, we expect investor focus

to remain on credit costs, given IBK’s SME-heavy book and higher vulnerability to economic

cycles. On shareholder returns, IBK will likely initiate its first interim dividend payout in July

following amendments to its Articles of Incorporation in March 2026. While the increased

frequency of dividend payouts is encouraging, we see limited upside to the payout ratio given

a thinner capital buffer, with CET1 still below 12%. Given IBK’s role as an SOE bank supporting

SME funding, we maintain relatively limited expectations for earnings growth and shareholder

return uplift. We retain Neutral.

Shinhan Financial Group:Incremental positives to come from strong 2QE earnings and

large share buyback program; OW

We expect Shinhan to deliver solid 2Q26 results with W1.7T in net profit, meeting recently raised