J.P. Morgan LatAm FTM 9 Jul 26 Mexico Equity Strategy; Brazilian Homebuilders; Natura; PetroReconcavo; Rumo and More

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J.P. Morgan LatAm FTM 9 Jul 26 Mexico Equity Strategy; Brazilian Homebuilders; Natura; PetroReconcavo; Rumo and More

Latin America Equity Research

LatAm First to Market 09 July 2026

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Mexico Equity Strategy (Adrian E Huerta)

2Q26 Preview: Another Cautious Q with Materials Still Leading the Way

Earnings season in Mexico is set to begin next week with only two companies reporting (see Table 1, below): AERO on Monday

and FIHO on Wednesday. Since March 20, 2Q EBITDA expectations (EWW-weighted basis) are +1.2pp, now at +11% y/y

in MXN vs +13% reported in 1Q, marking a continued deceleration in growth expectations (+16% in 4Q). Materials and

Real Estate saw the most positive revisions, +3.6pp and +3.5pp, respectively. In materials, revisions were broad based, notably

in i) ALPEK (+15.4pp) as post-conflict dislocations lifted ocean freight costs above guidance levels; ii) PEÑOLES (+4.7pp) due

to the re-opening of Hormuz that re-ignited investor demand and pushed precious metal prices upward, and; iii) GMEXICO

(+3.7pp) where estimates were revised upward on higher copper prices. In Real Estate, most of the revision was led by FMTY

(+38.1pp), with consensus estimates now considering the recently acquired FMQ portfolio. On the flipside, the only sector with

negative revisions was Consumer Discretionary via ALSEA (-1.0pp), likely cut because the expected World Cup boost never

materialized (May SSS only ~1% above prior year) amid a soft Mexican consumer and decelerating Domino’s/Starbucks

trends. All other sectors saw no significant revisions in the past month. Bear in mind that in 1Q earnings were mixed to soft,

with Materials the clear bright spot, while Financials had the biggest swing down and Staples EBITDA growth

decelerated meaningfully.