ASEAN Consumer El Niño: Don’t trade the weather; watch the margins

Research evidence excerpt

ASEAN Consumer El Niño: Don’t trade the weather; watch the margins

he share price performance of ASEAN consumer stocks.

Episode outcomes are mixed, even when accounting for the severity of the Relevant reports

weather disturbance. Notable exceptions tend to coincide with larger macro

Indonesia Consumer: Navigating the shocks, such as the AFC (1997-1998) and the GFC (2006-2007) and post-

sector through tough times, 5 July 2026 Russia-Ukraine war (2023-2024). This means that weather is never the sole or

dominant driver of equity performance. Asia: El Niño and food inflation, 1 July

• Watch out for RM-led margin pressures. Key soft commodities show a

ASEAN Equity Strategy: Super El Niño clearer relationship with El Niño. Across the documented past eight episodes,

palm oil (+8.3%) and rubber (+27%) recorded the largest median price meets Middle East conflict, 3 June 2026

increases, followed by rice (3.6%) and wheat (3.6%). Most of the commodities ASEAN Consumer: Cereal Shocks and Oil

also exhibited median price increases of roughly 8-12%, one year after the El Slicks: Assessing the Middle East

Niño episode, suggesting that pricing effects can persist beyond the peak Conflict’s Impact, 10 March 2026

weather disturbance and influence the input cost dynamics. As per our ASEAN Consumer: From pumps to

sensitivity analysis, +10% moves in key commodities translate into a HSD to pockets: How an extended Middle East

mid-teens EBIT decline, ceteris paribus. We note that apart from the lagged conflict shapes consumption, 10 April

impact in terms of timing, the other factors that could shape the commodities 2026

cost impact on margins include RM inventory cycle, hedging position/policy,

diversified supply chains and flexible pricing power, among others. Stocks that