ASX Bulk miners: Monthly mark to market

Research evidence excerpt

ASX Bulk miners: Monthly mark to market

, capital expenditure,

and operating costs in addition to exchange rates. Variances in these assumptions versus

our base case present material risks both to the upside and downside to earnings forecasts

and valuation. Thematically, the accelerating ESG momentum and potential carbon tax

could introduce further valuation downside risks, reflected in a higher cost of borrowing and

multiple compression.

Key risks to earnings and valuation (Bulks)

• Champion Iron (CIA): Movements in iron ore prices that vary compared with our

forecasts present the key risk to our earnings estimates and valuation for CIA. Variances

in assumptions (production, capex, opex, and shipping rates of both core assets and the

DRPF project) vs our base case present risks (upside and downside) to earnings forecasts

and valuation.

• Coronado Global Resources (CRN): Movements in met coal prices present the most

significant upside and downside risks to our earnings forecasts and valuation. We make

assumptions within our forecasts for production, capex and opex, in addition to exchange

rates. Variances in these assumptions versus our base case present material risks (upside

and downside), to earnings forecast and valuation. Thematically, the accelerating ESG

momentum could introduce further valuation downside risks, reflected in higher cost of

borrowing and multiples compression.

• Deterra Royalties (DRR): Movements in iron-ore prices that vary from our forecasts

present the key risk to our earnings estimates and valuation. FX movements that vary from

our forecasts are also a risk.

• Mineral Resources (MIN): Movements in spot iron-ore and spodumene prices present the

most material risk to our earnings forecasts for MIN. We make assumptions on the capital