ASX Gold Miners: Monthly mark to market

Research evidence excerpt

ASX Gold Miners: Monthly mark to market

Macquarie Equity Research

07 July 2026

Metals & Mining

ASX Gold Miners: Monthly mark to Australia

market

We mark forward curves to market

Adam Regan

Baker Burrows, CFA

Key Points

• Gold has been volatile in CY26, reaching record highs at US$5,400/oz in Rob Gabriel

January before pulling back to ~US$4,100/oz amidst macroeconomic Stein Harlan

uncertainty.

• We refresh our market-based price forecast (forward curve) for 18 Recommendation Changes

months before mean reverting to our prior outlook in CY29E. LT prices

unchanged. Downgrades

EVN (Outperform to Neutral)• We reduce near-term EPS for gold equities; EVN downgraded to N from •

OP. NEM is our large-cap preference, with CMM in the mid-cap. Please see Figure 1 for our EPS estimate changes.

Please see Figure 2 for our target price changes.

• Monthly mark to market: We refresh our CY26-28e price forecasts (see

our ASX Mining: Monthly mark to market here), marking the CY26-27e

forward curve to market. Our LT prices are unchanged US$3,100/oz (link).

Au changes: CY26E +0%; CY27E -3%; CY28E -2%, with our price below

consensus.

• Earnings adjustments: The changes to our gold price deck drives on

average 6%/7% EPS reductions in CY27E/FY27E, and more moderate

reductions in CY28E/FY28E.

• Target price changes: The changes to our gold price deck drives low to

moderate single digit reductions to our target prices.

Key picks/upgrades

• Large-cap preference: NEM has strong cash generation (CY26E FCF of

10%) and solid capital management, with US$1.9b of buybacks deployed

in 1Q CY26 and another US$6b buyback program approved at the 1Q

result. Additionally, we view limited risk to guidance for NEM heading into

July given it is a CY-end company. We expect the company will continue