Australian Precious Metals: Lowering CY26/27 but long term is up

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Australian Precious Metals: Lowering CY26/27 but long term is up

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Australian Precious Metals

Lowering CY26/27 but long term is up

Rating Change

Strategists: gold to take a breather before a leg higher 08 July 2026

We update our estimates ahead of 4Q results and for BofA’s latest gold forecasts. We Equity

note investor hesitation on the yellow metal into a higher USD and rate environment in Australia

the near-term but we expect renewed upside once the tightening cycle ends, supported Gold & Precious Metals

by gold’s appeal as a “portfolio diversifier”. We trim our June YE forecasts by 16% in Kate McCutcheon >>

FY27e but nudge up by 5% in FY28e. Our LT (real) price lifts US$500/oz to US$3500/oz. Research Analyst

We reduce our ASX goldco earnings by ~20% for FY27 but lift FY28e by ~8%. NAV’s are Merrill+61 2 9226Lynch5728(Australia)

up by ~20% on higher LT gold. We offset higher LT prices by trimming our NAV kate.mccutcheon@bofa.com

multiples. With softer FY27 earnings and lower NAV multiples our POs are down by Elaine Faddis >>

Research Analyst

~10%. See our Strategists gold note here: Metals Weekly Spanner in the works. Merrill Lynch (Australia)

elaine.faddis@bofa.com

Pecking order: EVN key Buy. GGP to Buy, NST to Neutral Chen Jiang >>

Execution and delivery remain key to relative outperformance. We keep our Buy on EVN Merrill Lynch (Australia)

and see the Sep investor day/site visits as a key catalyst for investors to appreciate the chen_jiang@bofa.com

growth potential at Cowal i.e. every 1Mt from Oban could add 30kozpa. We continue to Paul Wiggers de Vries

see consensus upgrades for GMD (Buy rated) into the Sep multi-year outlook but note Merrill Lynch (Australia)

potential for a VAU-GMD deal. See our GMD-VAU: now or never note.