Rotation With a Side of Whiplash

Research evidence excerpt

Rotation With a Side of Whiplash

June 28, 2026 Rotation With a Side of Whiplash

Plenty to Like ex-AI, While MU Gives Negative Volume Inflection

Jonathan Krinsky, CMT

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: (332) 400-5152 jkrinsky@btig.comTECHNICAL Rotation is happening and leadership is shifting. RSP beat SPX by over 3% in the last

five days, the biggest such surge since mid-2024. Equal-weight Healthcare nearing a

five-year breakout, IBB has already broken out, regional banks are toying with multi-

year highs, and REITs remain timely. Conversely, the SOX index just gave a pretty bearish

whiplash signal. A -7% week following a +7% week that made a 52wk high. If we loosen

to -5%/+5%, the last occurrence was 3/17/00 (-83% decline), and before that July-Sep.STRATEGY

'95 (-53% decline). Further, Micron (MU, Not Rated) did $99bn in notional volume on

both Thursday and Friday. Each would have been one of the largest single dollar volume

days for any stock in recent history. We look at 19 prior high-profile record dollar volume

days over the last six years. Only four names are trading higher than they were on that

record dollar volume day. All of them exhibited at least a -10% drawdown, and 13 of 19

(68%) saw at least a -20% drawdown over the ensuing six-months. All of this suggests

to us that the semi/AI trade still has meaningful downside, but money continues to find

other places within equities and for now we would embrace that rotation.

■ Equal vs. Cap-Weight Surge. RSP > SPX by 3% the last five days, biggest such surge

since mid-2024. Long-term trend still down, but we think there is room for the ratio

to move higher.

■ Small-Cap Summer. As we stated last week, we prefer the slow-steady ascent of

small-caps to the parabolic advance of main parts of tech/AI. SML 600 has broken