Everplay Group PLC: Model update ahead of H1

Research evidence excerpt

Everplay Group PLC: Model update ahead of H1

Barclays | Everplay Group PLC

1H26 forecasts – expecting a very H2-weighted year

When presenting their outlook for FY26 at the FY25 results, management noted that "the

phasing of costs in H1 associated with larger releases due towards the end of H1 and into H2 is

expected to result in a H2 weighting of aEBITDA delivery". That was before they announced that

Hell Let Loose: Vietnam was being delayed from an H1 release to a 13th August release. So now

we expect the year to be even more H2-weighted.

While we expect good momentum on revenue growth to continue in 1H26 at Storytoys,

following a strong 2H25, we expect the impact of astragon's decision to exit its physical game

distribution business to drag on 1H26 growth in that unit (along with an H2-weighted slate) and

we expect Team17's slate to be very much weighted to H2 (with HLL Vietnam, Wardogs and Golf

With Your Friends 2 expected in H2).

So for 1H26 organic revenue growth (including the impact of FX, as shown by management) we

have -2.5% (with FX being -1.4pts of that decline). Then we have 8.8% organic revenue growth

in 2H26 (0.3pt drag from FX) due to the releases coming in that period, leaving our FY26E

organic growth (inc impact of FX) slightly higher at 3.9% but only because FX has moved in

Everplay's favour since we last published.

Lastly on adjusted EBITDA margin, we have a much lower number in 1H26E than in FY26E for

the group. This is because 1) we expect at least some of the releases in 2H26 to support margin

notably; and 2) in 1H26 the company is investing in marketing and other costs ahead of those

releases. So that leaves our adjusted EBITDA margin down at 14.0% for 1H26E vs. 26.5% for

1H25. But we still expect FY26 margin to be in line with FY25 at 29%.