Telco Daily: US Telcos, TNOR M&A, ORA, TalkTalk, UK fibre war

Research evidence excerpt

Telco Daily: US Telcos, TNOR M&A, ORA, TalkTalk, UK fibre war

rticipants that may ultimately

precipitate near-term real-world impacts of long-term hypotheticals. This cycle of self-fulfilling

prophecies is ultimately what valuation worries appear to be about and therefore may be

difficult to overcome merely with near-term fundamental outperformance, which is likely in

telecom this quarter. We expect competitive intensity to remain elevated for a while even

beyond this year. However TMUS is likely the key asset in any organic or inorganic partnership

with satellite or broadband operators, ironically because it has the smallest wireline footprint.

In addition, TMUS’s organic growth in its underlying business has the cleanest trajectory simply

given its low penetration vs peers in suburban and rural markets as well as businesses. The

company’s lower back book vs front book price is also a structural advantage that should

provide sustained pricing power even as peers compete more aggressively on price. The

company’s volume growth is likely to be lower going forward simply given unsustainability of

industry volume growth as well as greater competitive intensity. However, this more pricing and

mix heavy growth should also result in more upside to margins and free cash flow than peers.

We reduce our PT to $230 (from $245) based on 8.2x 2027E EBITDA (previously 9.4x 2026E

EBITDA) but leave estimates broadly unchanged: we reduce service revenues by -1% in 2026 but

that is offset by lower costs and hence EBITDA/FCF is unchanged. Our DTE SOTP is based on the

$245 PT to which we apply a discount to reflect a number of uncertainties valuing TMUS shares

at $218, i.e. below the new price target of $230 as discussed in Deutsche Telekom – Concerns,

risks...and valuation - July 2026.