Hensoldt AG: Expect solid 2Q, but waiting for the next upgrade

Research evidence excerpt

Hensoldt AG: Expect solid 2Q, but waiting for the next upgrade

ice Performance Exchange-FWBFigure 2). Company-collected consensus will be released in the coming days.

52 Week range EUR 117.70-63.18

No 2026 outlook upgrades just yet; minor changes to FY26/27 estimates. Despite this

momentum, we still think it is too soon to upgrade FY26 revenue and EBITDA guidance and

expect management to reiterate all items in the upcoming earnings release (FCF was already

upgraded in June). We make minor P&L changes to our forecasts and continue to model €5.5bn

order intake in 2026 (2.0x book to bill) and €2.8bn revenue. We also forecast €527m EBITDA for

this year, ~2% ahead of consensus and midpoint of guide. With the Optronics turnaround on

track (margin at double-digit) and modest Sensors margin, we see HAG's outlook numbers as Source: IDC

achievable and conservative (just like FCF figures were before the upgrade last month). We Link to Barclays Live for interactive charting

remind that Nedinsco numbers are not accretive due to HAG being their key customer, so on a

consolidated basis the acquisition last month has a negligible impact on earnings, in our view. European Aerospace & Defence

Afonso Osorio, CFA

No meaningful drag from F126 programme cancellation. This project would have generated a +44 (0)20 3134 7016

total of €200m worth of business for Hensoldt, of which ~33% has already been recognised as afonso.osorio@barclays.com

revenue (LDD revenue still expected in FY26 from this, or about 0.5% of the implied guidance Barclays, UK

that will not be fully recognised). The remaining order book treatment is subject to contractual Milene Kerner

+33 (0)1 4458 4002

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies milene.kerner@barclays.com