European Integrated Energy: Russian diesel export ban - upside to European refining margin

Research evidence excerpt

European Integrated Energy: Russian diesel export ban - upside to European refining margin

Equity Research

European Integrated Energy

8 July 2026

Russian diesel export ban - upside

to European refining margin First Look

Russia imposed a diesel export ban to prevent domestic European Integrated Energy

shortages following repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on the POSITIVE

country's refineries. We expect this to further tighten European Integrated Energy

Naisheng Cui, CFA

European diesel balances and support higher refining +44 (0)20 7773 0486

margins. Repsol, Neste and Galp to be, in our view, the key naisheng.cui@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

beneficiaries. Lydia Rainforth, CFA

+44 (0)20 3134 6669

Bloomberg reported (link) that Russia imposed a diesel export ban to prevent domestic lydia.rainforth@barclays.com

shortages following repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on the country's refineries. Barclays, UK

Ramachandra Kamath

We have seen diesel margin increased c.$10/bl or c.20% to $62/bl. +91 (0)22 61752308

ramchandra.kamath@barclays.com

With Brent rising to $80/bbl amid heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East, benchmark Barclays, UK

diesel prices have now moved back above the $140/bbl mark.

Thea Lacroix

Repsol and Neste, in our view, are the key diesel beneficiaries. Galp is also a key refining name. +44 (0)20 3555 3088

thea.lacroix@barclays.com

Since our upgrade in Neste earlier this year, this is the first time that we are Overweight on all Barclays, UK

three of the refining names in our European energy coverage space in the last 10 years. Anand Vardhan Gupta

+91 (0)22 6175 4703

We also see potential cash distribution increases from the European refiners on the back of anandvardhan.gupta@barclays.com

strong cashflows outlooks. Barclays, UK