US Daily Data Recap "Wider trade deficit, Williams & more" Wilcox

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Data Recap "Wider trade deficit, Williams & more" Wilcox

Global Research

7 July 2026ab

US Daily Data Recap Economics

AmericasWider trade deficit, Williams & more

Amanda Wilcox

Economist

The trade deficit widened -$23.0 billion to -$77.6 billion in May, the widest since March amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3899

2025, as imports rose 3.3% and exports fell -3.2%. The goods trade deficit expanded

sharply to -$106.5 billion, while the services surplus edged up to $28.9 billion. Import Jonathan Pingle

growth was broad-based, though imports of computers, peripherals, and Economist

semiconductors remained elevated at about 20% of all goods imports, highlighting the jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

continued AI-related build-out. On the export side, a -$6.1 billion decline in non-

monetary gold exports contributed to the overall drop in goods exports, but because Alan Detmeister

non-monetary gold trade is excluded from the BEA's GDP calculations, the underlying Economist

decline in goods exports was somewhat smaller than the headline figure suggested. alan.detmeister@ubs.com

+1-212-713 1222

Abigail WattThe FRB of New York's June Survey of Consumer Expectations showed a modest

increase in inflation expectations, with the three-year measure up 0.2 pp to 3.3%, its abigail.watt@ubs.com

highest level since June 2022, while five-year ahead expectations remained unchanged +1-212-882 6929

at 3.0%. The FRB of New York's expectations measures have remained in a more narrow

Jalen Nichols

and stable range in 2025 and 2026 relative to the University of Michigan's inflation

expectations measures. Overall, this survey still suggests that inflation expectations jalen.nichols@ubs.com

remain generally well-anchored. Labor market and household financial sentiment +1-212-882 6905