Abbisko Cayman "Fundamentals intact despite sector-driven weakness;..."

Research evidence excerpt

Abbisko Cayman "Fundamentals intact despite sector-driven weakness;..."

0.47)

12/27E (0.31) (0.28) NM (0.34)

Pipeline development on track; R&D platform promotes extended partnerships

12/28E (0.36) (0.33) NM (0.26)

We maintain our Rmb17bn, Rmb3.6bn and Rmb500m peak sales estimates for the

pipeline assets FGFR4, oral PD-L1 and FGFR2/3, respectively. Abbisko expects to advance Chen Chen, PhD

2-3 new PCCs to IND stage per year. ABSK141 (KRAS G12D) received IND approval in the Analyst

chen-zb.chen@ubs.comUS and China in December 2025, and entered Phase 1/2 trials in China in March 2026. In

+86-10-5832 8201

terms of partnerships, Abbisko announced a collaboration and license agreement with

Eli Lilly on 24 June, under which Abbisko will lead discovery and early development of Liz Han, CFA

multiple novel drug targets. The deal, worth up to US$1.9bn plus tiered royalties with an Analyst

liz.han@ubs.com

undisclosed upfront payment, expands its 2022 partnership (a US$258m deal plus tiered

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royalties). We expect the deal to strengthen Abbisko's global pipeline optionality and

long-term sales potential. We have not yet factored the deal into our model. Michelle Zhu

Analyst

S1460522090003Valuation: Lower PT from HK$22.90 to HK$17.50, maintain Buy rating

michelle.zhu@ubs.com

We lower our price target to HK$17.50 (WACC 10.8%->12.1%, TGR 3% unchanged), +86-21-3866 8838

mainly due to a higher risk-free rate (up from 4.00% to 5.88%) and a higher share

count (up 16% after an equity placement in Apr 2026). Our 2026-28E revenue and

operating profit estimates remain unchanged. Our price target implies 1.5x risk-adjusted

P/peak sales, below the 1.7x median of China biotech stocks we cover. Risks include

clinical trial setbacks or delays, commercialisation risks and competition.