Global Strategy "CTAs' Positioning and Flows - Biweekly Update" Le Roux

Research evidence excerpt

Global Strategy "CTAs' Positioning and Flows - Biweekly Update" Le Roux

Global Research

7 July 2026ab

Global Strategy Global Macro Strategy

GlobalCTAs' Positioning and Flows - Biweekly Update

Nicolas Le Roux

Strategist

Details on the methodology/model can be found in our Q-Series report nicolas.le-roux@ubs.com

+33-14-953 2118

Bhanu Baweja

Low volatility drives re-leveraging and carry Strategist

• In equities, CTAs' activity is likely to remain subdued as we head into the summer bhanu.baweja@ubs.com

months. Lower realized volatility and the resulting re-leveraging dynamic should remain +44-20-7568 6833

the dominant theme over the next few weeks, with European and Scandinavian indices Paul Winter

expected to stay relatively well supported. Analyst

• In bonds, flows are likely to be sizeable over the near term, regardless of direction. Any paul-j.winter@ubs.com

move exceeding 1.5 standard deviations (roughly 20bps) is likely to trigger significant +61-2-9324 2080

CTA activity, equivalent to $150m or more of global DV01. If yields move lower, U.S. Julien Conzano

duration should be the main beneficiary; if yields rise, European bonds could face Strategist

meaningful selling pressure. julien.conzano@ubs.com

• In credit, CTAs continue to harvest carry and remain max long the asset class, limiting +44-20-7567 2067

the scope for major near-term outflows. Gerry Fowler

• In FX, CTAs have accumulated around $200bn of USD exposure since the end of May. Strategist

While the average signal remains far from extreme at -0.32, exceptionally low volatility gerry.fowler@ubs.com

has pushed USD exposure to the 95th percentile since 1990. From here, flows are likely +44-20-7567 5490

to stabilize, with a clear pro-carry bias. Shahab Jalinoos