European Telecoms "Deep-dive on satellite impact - threat or complement?" Shah

Research evidence excerpt

European Telecoms "Deep-dive on satellite impact - threat or complement?" Shah

Global Research

7 July 2026ab

European Telecoms Equities

Europe including UKDeep-dive on satellite impact - threat or

complement? Telecommunications

Dhruva Kusa Shah

Analyst

dhruva-kusa.shah@ubs.com

Greater impact on sentiment than near-term financials +44-20-7568 3395

European Telecoms have fallen ~10% over the past month, largely driven by concerns Polo Tang

over potential satellite disruption. Overall, satellites are likely to be complementary on Analyst

mobile and a replay of fixed wireless access (FWA) on broadband. However, the near- polo.tang@ubs.com

term financial impact is to be limited as capacity is only set to meaningfully grow from +44-20-7568 1286

H2-27 with a greater effect on sentiment/valuations. Impact will vary significantly by Ondrej Cabejsek

market, creating both risks and opportunities across the sector - our analysis is Analyst

constructive for Orange (Buy) and KPN (Neutral) with increased competition likely for BT ondrej.cabejsek@ubs.com

(Sell), Vodafone (Sell) and Telenor (Buy). (Figure 14Countriesmostexposedtosatelitedisruption). +44-20-7568 6332

Christina Michael

Satellite mobile D2D is complementary but wary of satellite MVNOs Associate Analyst

We think satellite mobile direct-to-device (D2D) is complementary in rural/uncovered christina.michael@ubs.com

areas but faces constraints when competing with terrestrial networks given line-of-sight +44-20-7567 2376

requirements, handset power limitations, and finite spectrum capacity potentially Oba Agboola

limiting coverage at 1.9% of the global population with basic 5G speeds (Figure 17Potentialpopulationservedwith4G/5GmobilespedsbyD2Dmobilesatelite). Associate Analyst