Deckers Outdoor Corp "UBS Evidence Lab inside: 1Q27 Preview: We See..."

Research evidence excerpt

Deckers Outdoor Corp "UBS Evidence Lab inside: 1Q27 Preview: We See..."

Powered by Lab Global7 JulyResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

Deckers Outdoor Corp Equities

AmericasUBS Evidence Lab inside: 1Q27 Preview: We See

A Balanced Upside/Downside Skew Retailers, Apparel

12-month rating Buy *

12m price target US$161.00We doubt DECK's Q1 report changes sentiment or the stock's P/E much:

Our checks suggest Hoka's US and Europe DTC sales growth rate were pressured q/q

and believe this sets DECK up to deliver a relatively in-line Q1 EPS print and reiterate its Price (06 Jul 2026) US$105.67

FY27 EPS guidance of $7.30-$7.45. We note our expectations assume US tariff rates RIC: DECK.N BBG: DECK US

remain at 10% post July 24th (link). Our conversations with investors suggest the

markets hold a similar view. Thus, we don't expect DECK's 1Q report to change Trading data and key metrics

sentiment or the stock's P/E much. This is why we see a balanced upside/downside skew 52-wk range US$123.91-79.54

over the event. The options market is pricing in a +/- 7.4% jump vs. a 7.8% historical Market cap. US$14.9b

average move. We agree with the options market's view. Shares o/s 141m (COM)

Free float 99%

DECK sentiment leans bearish, in our view: Avg. daily volume ('000) 655

UBS Quant team's data suggests DECK's crowding score has weakened over the last 3 Avg. daily value (m) US$69.1

months and is below its 5-yr. avg. (Fig. 9,10). Plus, DECK's short interest has risen 90 bps Common s/h equity (03/27E) US$2.35b

since it reported Q4 EPS to 4.3%. Lastly, DECK's stock price has underperformed the P/BV (03/27E) 6.2x

S&P 500 by ~1,000 bps over the last 3 months. These datapoints and our conversations Net debt to EBITDA (03/27E) NM

with investors suggest sentiment around DECK leans bearish.