Moelis & Company "Downgrade to Sell Amid Subdued Sponsor & Software Trends"

Research evidence excerpt

Moelis & Company "Downgrade to Sell Amid Subdued Sponsor & Software Trends"

Global Research

7 July 2026ab

Moelis & Company Equities

United StatesDowngrade to Sell Amid Subdued Sponsor

& Software Trends Diversified Financial

12-month rating Sell *

Prior : Neutral

12m price target US$60.00Downgrade to Sell from Neutral with a $60 Price Target

Prior : US$58.00

We downgrade Moelis & Company (MC) to Sell, as we believe risk/reward is increasingly

skewed to the downside. Consensus expectations for a sharp acceleration in advisory Price (07 Jul 2026) US$70.95

revenues and earnings appear too optimistic, in our view, creating risk of estimate cuts RIC: MC.N BBG: MC US

and multiple compression. We forecast 2027E revenue and EPS 10% and 22% below

consensus, respectively. Our more cautious outlook reflects MC's business mix, which Trading data and key metrics

we believe is less favorably positioned for the current M&A cycle. The firm has higher 52-wk range US$77.75-51.38

exposure to the slower sponsor market, meaningful exposure to the challenged Market cap. US$6.05b

technology sector, and less leverage to large-cap strategic transactions, the strongest Shares o/s 85.3m (COM)

area of M&A activity (+150% YTD). Valuation also appears demanding. Shares trade at Free float 22%

23x/18x consensus 2026E/2027E EPS, yet 23x our 2027E estimates. With EPS downside Avg. daily volume ('000) 313

risk from still challenged sponsor and software M&A, including a 10% risk to consensus Avg. daily value (m) US$20.7

2027 EPS under our Software M&A Stress Case (Figure 8), we see limited upside and Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$0.60b

increasing downside risk. P/BV (12/26E) 10.2x

Tier 1 ratio -

Top Line Growth Too Optimistic with Sponsor/Software Headwinds