US Building Materials: No Stones Unturned "Positive aggregates pricing..."

Research evidence excerpt

US Building Materials: No Stones Unturned "Positive aggregates pricing..."

Aggregates pricing: Expects mid-year pricing from aggregates producers to be in

the high single digit range (~7-8%).

From a demand perspective, it’s a two-speed market, with strength in data centers

and state funded DOT projects, and there are some large energy and pharma

projects. Commercial and housing remain weak, but there are some greenshoots

in build-to-suit warehouse. This contractor is seeing double digit volume growth.

Some struggling contractors are booking work in new markets and in some cases

at low prices, including in some cases without fuel escalators.

Expects infrastructure spending to be fairly resilient based on IIJA funding and

healthy DOT budgets in some key states.

Data centers are highly aggregates intensive. In a separate check with a GC at a

large and relatively remote data center project, we were told that delayed concrete

shipments caused delays early in the project. It's a function of limited local capacity

(it's a remote project), but also high concrete intensity of these projects. Data

centers require strong foundations to support the weight, and to protect against

any shifting in the soil (e.g. due to an earthquake).

Quarry automation could drive further productivity gains for producers.

In a separate conversation with another large contractor, we heard that aggregates

pricing is ~5-8% (this comment was not specifically about mid-year increases) with more

remote locations seeing higher pricing. Both contacts noted that aggregates companies

have significant pricing power, with one agreeing with the statement that they can set

prices however high they want within reason.

Recent trends:

Pricing: PPI & checks support company guidance for aggregates