P&C Insurance "2Q26 Earnings Preview; Organic growth turning the corner..."

Research evidence excerpt

P&C Insurance "2Q26 Earnings Preview; Organic growth turning the corner..."

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P&C Insurance Equities

North America2Q26 Earnings Preview; Organic growth turning

the corner for brokers? Insurance

Brian Meredith

Analyst

brian.meredith@ubs.com

We like WTW and TWFG into 2Q26 results +1-212-713 2492

We like WTW into 2Q26 results. After reporting disappointing R&B organic revenue Justin Tucker

growth in 1Q26 (+2%), we expect it to accelerate and beat consensus expectations in Associate Analyst

2Q26 (+5% vs. consensus of +4%) as temporary headwinds in 2Q26 abate. We also see justin.tucker@ubs.com

a modest earnings beat on better-than-expected margins. We also like TWFG heading +1-212-713 2325

into 2Q26 results, as our EPS estimate is 9% above consensus. We believe TWFG can Leandro Leite

deliver double-digit organic revenue growth in the quarter (UBSe at 23.5% vs. Associate Analyst

consensus at 18%), while consensus has yet to fully incorporate the strong near-term leandro.leite@ubs.com

growth opportunity stemming from the Florida MGA takeout program, as well as the +1-212-882 5559

robust margin profile we expect in 2Q26.

Main themes for 2Q26

(1) We remain positive on insurance brokers heading into 2Q26 results and favor

WTW and TWFG ahead of results. We generally expect stable to modestly improved

organic revenue growth from 1Q26, despite pricing pressures from seasonally heavy

commercial property insurance renewals, as macroeconomic conditions remain sound.

Moreover, while insurance brokers have outperformed the market over the last 30 days,

they remain down YTD and are trading at attractive valuations both on an absolute basis

and relative to the market. We also expect EBITDA margin expansion y/y for most