MiniMax: Investor meeting takeaway: sustained focus on model competency

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MiniMax: Investor meeting takeaway: sustained focus on model competency

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MiniMax

Investor meeting takeaway: sustained

focus on model competency

Maintain Rating: BUY | PO: 500.00 HKD | Price: 346.60 HKD

Lock-up expiration soon; asymmetric risk-reward 06 July 2026

We hosted a well-attended group investor meeting with MiniMax IR Director in HK on Equity

June 30. Key investor questions include 1) model roadmap ahead; 2) compute access

Alex Liu >>

amid the dynamic geopolitical backdrop; 3) oversea revenue opportunity and coding Research Analyst

capability ramp-up progress. Post feedback from our recent initiation, we believe many Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) alex.liu3@bofa.com

investors are in “show me” mode as they wait for MiniMax to narrow the capability gap

especially on coding to leading domestic peers (e.g. Zhipu). While we expect likely higher

price volatility into July 8 lock-up expiration (see page 2 for details), the potential

Southbound inclusion later (we estimate August 6) may offer some liquidity support. Stock Data

Maintain Buy and PO of HKD500. Key near-term events/catalysts: lock-up expiration Price 346.60 HKD

(July 8), potential Hailuo new model launch (July 26), potential Southbound inclusion Price Objective 500.00 HKD

(August 6), potential M3 full version launch (2H26). Date Established 15-Jun-2026

Revenue profile & model roadmap ahead Investment52-Week RangeOpinion 220.00 HKD-1,330C-1-9HKD

MiniMax has reached a 400mn USD ARR by Apr 26 and remains confident to achieve at Mrkt Val / Shares Out (mn) 10,276 USD / 232.5

least 1bn USD ARR by end-2026, with higher revenue mix from enterprise/cloud API now Market Value (mn) 80,596 HKD

- a notable shift from last year when the consumer products contributed about 70%.