GEMs Viewpoint: Everything you need to know about GEMs –The 2026 mid-year edition

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GEMs Viewpoint: Everything you need to know about GEMs –The 2026 mid-year edition

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GEMs Viewpoint

Everything you need to know about GEMs –

The 2026 mid-year edition

Top of the rank: Taiwan maintains the lead, Saudi falls 06 July 2026

Taiwan maintains the top spot in our resiliency estimates, with Kuwait, UAE, Oman and GEM Economics

Peru taking the next 4 spots (Exhibit 1). Saudi Arabia fell out of the top 5, as Iran-War- Global

related stress increased vulnerability across GCC markets.

Raghav Adlakha

EM Quant/Sovereign Strategist

MLI (UK)GEM-10: Türkiye tumbles

raghav.adlakha@bofa.com

Türkiye fell below South Africa among the 10 biggest emerging markets, while Brazil

David Hauner, CFA >>

extended its long-standing bottom-of-the-GEM-10 run. Asian EMs (Indonesia, Korea, Global EM FI/FX Strategist

China, India) maintained their relative lead over their EEMEA and LatAm peers. MLI (UK)

david.hauner@bofa.com

Bottom 5: Ukraine, Senegal out, Jordan, Sri Lanka in CarlosLatAm andCapistranCanada Economist

Tunisia continued to languish at the bottom of our rankings, givens its poor fiscal BofAS

carlos.capistran@bofa.com

performance and sustained weak growth. Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Jordan moved out of

Helen Qiao

this group, with their improving fundamentals steeling them through the Iran War. China & Asia Economist

Romania, Gabon and Bahrain took their spots. Egypt rounded out the rest of the group. Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) helen.qiao@bofa.com

EM: Growth ticks up, inflation and trade balances worsen Jean-MichelEEMEA Econ Head/MENASaliba Economist

EM-wide forecasts saw a tick up in growth expectations (4.5% weighted by PPP-GDP). MLI (UK) jean-michel.saliba@bofa.com

Trade balance forecasts saw a sharp reversal (2026F revised down by 7pp since Dec