Ferrari NV: 12 Cilindri Manuale relieves Luce concerns; PO up to €400

Research evidence excerpt

Ferrari NV: 12 Cilindri Manuale relieves Luce concerns; PO up to €400

: 12Cilindri Manuale offsets lower Luce volumes

We are already incorporating the 12Cilindri Manuale into our estimates. We assume

sales of c500 units p.a. from 2027e to 2029e. In return, we lower our Luce sales forecast

from c1,000 units p.a. to just 500 units p.a. In our view, this provides an almost perfect

revenue offset to lower Luce volumes, as both models are priced at broadly similar

levels. From an earnings perspective, the trade-off could even be positive, as we expect

the 12Cilindri Manuale to carry higher profitability. The Manuale costs c€200k more than

the standard 12Cilindri, which is priced at c€395k, and we would expect its EBIT margin

to be clearly above the group average of c30%. When the Manuale phases out, we

expect Ferrari to launch another regular 12Cilindri Special, likely with higher output, as is

typical towards the end of a range model’s life cycle. We also expect Ferrari to launch

another BEV around that time (2030e), which we believe could be more sports-car-

oriented than the Luce and therefore potentially attract stronger demand.

Equity story for us in a nutshell from here

Higher estimates from 2027 and thereafter

We show our updated estimates in Exhibit 5.. Our FY26 estimates move slightly lower,

as we align our average selling price assumption with Ferrari’s guidance from the Q1

results. Nevertheless, we still expect a modest FY26 revenue guidance upgrade, as we

expect volume growth to pick up in H2. The EBIT margin should come down only

marginally versus H1 and could also be raised for the full year. Our FY27 and FY28

estimates move higher, driven in part by the positive product mix contribution from the

12Cilindri Manuale and more limited dilution from the Luce.