Check-In With BCRX; Thoughts On The Navenibart Setup

Research evidence excerpt

Check-In With BCRX; Thoughts On The Navenibart Setup

e now estimate total non-GAAP operating expense Q2 Jun 150.5A 232.0E 169.1E

Q3 Sep 146.5A 162.6E 171.7E of $428M in FY26 and estimate ~$10M in additional annualized savings can be

Q4 Dec 163.3A 165.1E 175.5E realized.

Year* 592.9A 716.1E 675.9E ● Navenibart continuing to advance on track. BCRX also announced Phase 3

EPS in $ ALPHA-ORBIT enrollment completed, with top-line data available by 3Q27. The

FYE Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E study now incorporates a 12-month HAE attack rate reduction primary endpoint

Q1 Mar (0.06)A (2.98)A 0.08E

Previous 0.01E (vs. 6-months). We spoke to BCRX management including Chief R&D Officer

Q2 Jun (0.04)A 0.31E 0.11E Sandeep Menon who noted the move was made in alignment with FDA. From

Previous 0.03E our view, this makes sense given the Q6M dosing interval being assessed.

Q3 Sep 0.00A 0.05E 0.11E Management also noted that from a statistical powering perspective the 12-

Previous 0.03E 0.04E month time point likely holds greater power than the 6-month time point as

Q4 Dec 1.12A 0.08E 0.12E the magnitude of effect tends to increase over time, plus the overenrollment

Previous 0.01E 0.05E of a few extra patients.

Year* 1.21A (2.46)E 0.43E ● Previous (2.55)E 0.13E Continue to hold a positive bias. We are shifting our navenibart launch

P/E 8.4x NM 23.7x timing out to FY29 given the expected regulatory submission in late 2027.

We are also shifting our valuation year from 2029 to 2030 as this representsBeginning in 4Q25, non-GAAP results adjusted

to reflect divestiture of European Orladeyo a more steady-state period. The net of our updates yields no change to our

business following sale to Neopharmed Gentili $21 price target on BCRX. While the upcoming CHAPTER-3 readout for PHVS

SpA