Neo-Cloudnomics Emerging competition highlights low barriers to entry

Research evidence excerpt

Neo-Cloudnomics Emerging competition highlights low barriers to entry

gton@hsbcib.com

The GPU cloud market has lower entry barriers than the general purpose cloud market, +44 20 7991 6734

as GPU clouds are operationally and technologically less complicated. The ease and Charlie Rothbarth*

speed with which SpaceX could turn into a de-facto GPU cloud infra provider is a good Global Tech Platforms Analyst

HSBC Bank plc

example. This fact is reflected in neocloud’s weak asset turnover and ROIC as compared charlie.rothbarth@hsbc.com

with general purpose clouds. Our 2028e to 2030e non-GAAP EPS estimates for +44 203 2685284

CoreWeave are more than 70% below consensus. We believe the consensus is Frank Lee*

Global Head of Tech Hardware & Semi Research

incorrectly assuming a major increase in CoreWeave’s asset turnover. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

frank.lee@hsbc.com.hk

Foray into cloud infrastructure a positive backstop for Meta +852 2996 6916

We expect Meta to incur an average capex of USD139bn p.a. over 2026-28e and large

part of it is likely to be devoted to the development of large language models. Building a * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

neo-cloud business can help Meta generate revenue when its compute capacity is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

underutilized (for example, in between major training bouts). In the unlikely event that

Meta’s AI foray were to fail, the neocloud business would allow Meta to easily offload its

excess capacity to surviving AI players. Meta has a mixed track record when it comes to

returns on its non-core initiatives such as Reality Labs. Consequently, the backstop

offered by the proposed neo-cloud business is likely to be appreciated by the market.