GLPNomics Testing TAM: Price elasticity of demand

Research evidence excerpt

GLPNomics Testing TAM: Price elasticity of demand

bution might reduce the risk of material operational disruption. yessica.sanchez@hsbc.com.mx

+55 52 8551 7904

The cautious view hinges on first-year launch frictions around eligibility verification and Damayanti Kerai*

documentation requirements, variability in pharmacy-level claims processing, and Analyst, India Healthcare

HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private

capacity constraints at clinics. These operational issues might cap 2026 volumes Limited

irrespective of the latent demand, and even be self-reinforcing if early patient experiences damayantikerai@hsbc.co.in +91 88 7933 5196

are inconsistent. Moreover, the programme’s temporary nature introduces an additional

Dhiraj Baid*

behavioural hurdle: clinicians may hesitate to initiate patients on a long-duration therapy if Associate

Bangalore

there is uncertainty about who carries the cost longer term. That ‘coverage cliff’ risk can

dampen both initiation and persistence as the end-date approaches.

* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

When and how will we know which thesis is playing out: The optimistic thesis will not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

look credible if we see rapid normalisation of pharmacy adjudication, improving

conversion from eligible to treated (late 2026), and strong refill/persistence behaviour with

exit growth rates indicating a strong set-up for 2027. The conservative view will be

validated if early operational frictions persist, participation/network gaps create patchy

access, and pricing pressure leaks into the diabetes segment or the broader market.

The debate on TAM: Bulls see a USD120–150bn market, driven by oral launches,

Medicare expansion and international growth.