China Materials Monthly Tracker Easing US-Iran tensions unwound metals risk premium

Research evidence excerpt

China Materials Monthly Tracker Easing US-Iran tensions unwound metals risk premium

Metals and Cement

should help relieve near-term supply tightness after buyers sought oversight of how iron ore enters the Chinese market, following a months- HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India)

Private Limited

alternative supply and smelters rerouted volumes through Oman and long standoff with BHP that ended in April. With steel demand remaining pinakin.parekh@hsbc.co.in

Saudi Arabia. LME aluminium has retraced to cUSD3,100/t (-20% m‑o‑m) soft and the iron ore market in surplus, we do not expect these supply +91 22 40891549

from elevated levels, but we don’t see further downside given a deeper controls to drive material upside in iron ore prices. Ishan Jain*

market deficit. China’s capacity ceiling and the time required to restore Analyst, Metals & Mining, Pulp & Paper

CATL has resumed operations at its 100ktpa Jianxiawo lithium mine: HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India)damaged Middle East smelters should underpin prices. According to Mysteel (30 June), the mine restarted production after Private Limited

DRC withdraws unused 1H26 cobalt export quotas and reassigns to securing a safety production permit on 29 June, following an August 2025 ishanjain@hsbc.co.in +91 80 4550 3767

state-controlled “strategic quota”: In October 2025, the DRC tightened shutdown. The mine previously contributed c10% of China’s lithium

cobalt exports by capping 2026 and 2027 annual quotas at 96.6kt, about carbonate output. After a strong rally over the past year, lithium prices

half of 2024 export volumes. In June 2026, ARECOMS reinforced the have dropped c25% from y-t-d high in May on expectations of higher IssuerThe Hongkongof report:and Shanghai Banking Corporation

supply from the restart.