MPLX: 2Q26 Earnings Preview

Research evidence excerpt

MPLX: 2Q26 Earnings Preview

MPLX LP

Target/Upside/Downside Scenarios Investment summary

We rate MPLX Outperform based on its diversified footprintMPLX LP

tied to a large strategic sponsor, attractive current yield,

70 125 Weeks 08FEB24 - 01JUL26 and meaningful free cash flow generation that could drive

65 additional capital returns to investors over time.

TARGETTARGET 60.0060.00

55 CURRENTCURRENT 55.9255.92 Potential catalysts

45 • Increased rig activity in the Marcellus/Utica as a result of

40 improving gas/NGL pricing

35 • Higher gas-processing margins and NGL prices

30 • Near-term synergistic growth projects announced with

20m accretive economics

15m

10m

5m

2024 2025 2026

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J Risks to rating and price target

MPLX US Rel. S&P 500 COMPOSITE MA 40 weeks • Project execution: Risks in both costs and timing that lead

Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets estimates for Target to lower-than-expected returns.

Valuation • Commodity prices: Sustained weakness in natural gas and

NGL prices due to several delays in commissioning of newWe value MPLX incorporating market comps in our sum-of-

LNG and Ethylene cracking facilities, combined with growingthe-parts. Using 2027 estimates, we value the Natural Gas

associated gas production in the Permian.and NGL Services business at 9x and Crude Oil and Products

Logistics at 12x. This implies a blended ~10.5x 2027E EV/ • Volume risks: A significant portion of operations depends

on production from oil and natural gas reserves and wells,EBITDA target multiple and results in a $60 price target. Our

which will naturally decline over time, which means thatprice target supports our Outperform rating.

cash flows associated with these wells will also decline over

Upside scenario time.