European Miners Q2 26 preview

Research evidence excerpt

European Miners Q2 26 preview

ce in favour of joint ventures. We expect Glencore to boost capital returns once

again from either Bunge share sales, with the lock up expiring on 2nd July, or at least borrowing against

the market value of the shares. We think this is likely to be the only headline capital return outside of the

normal dividend policies of the companies (Valterra expected to clear all excess cash as per guidance).

Our Q2 26 company specific expectations

Positive quarters

• Valterra: most shielded from cost inflation impacts and should look significantly better than a year

ago with the Amandelbult flooding impacts.

• Atalaya Mining: Recovery from rainfall in Q1 sees 30% higher QoQ volumes, while cost inputs (Spanish

diesel and electricity prices) already starting to fall from highs leaves us comfortable on current cost

guidance. Latest guidance for the Touro permit is by the summer (RBCe Q3 26).

Neutral quarters

• BHP: gets the bad news of Jansen out the way, and probably some good news for incoming CEO to

announce on infrastructure swaps (Escondida power lines for $1.5bn?).

• RIO: cash generation from iron ore being squeezed on costs and weaker realised pricing, offset by

potential asset sales and possibly JVs in Argentina (First Quantum's Taca Taca or McEwen's Los Azules).

• Glencore: cost inflation offset by corporate restructuring progress and further share buybacks.

• Boliden: Our forecasts are slightly ahead of consensus and we expect no major changes to FY26

guidance. The market will be watching for management commentary on Garpenberg, as well as

progress at Aitik and Odda.

• Endeavour Mining: soft quarter to be balanced by shareholder returns with our dividend forecasts

for the quarter +30% ahead of consensus.