CMCX: New FY27 EBITDA guidance c64% higher than consensus

Research evidence excerpt

CMCX: New FY27 EBITDA guidance c64% higher than consensus

EQUITY RESEARCH QUICK TAKE

RBC Europe Limited

Ben Bathurst (Analyst)

Jude Neanor (Analyst)

July 1, 2026

CMC Markets PLC

New FY27 EBITDA guidance c64% higher than consensus

LSE: CMCX | GBp 458.00 | Outperform | Price Target GBp 460

Sentiment: Positive

CMCX has released an unscheduled trading statement this morning where it has substantially raised FY27 guidance. The group

now expects NOI of £550m and EBITDA of £250m. Versus our forecasts, these are 20% and 62% ahead, respectively.

The statement comes on the first day of Q2/FY27, and follows what has evidently been a strong start to the year where

“momentum has continued to build and scale” following the last update in early June.

The release references “scale of B2B platforms”, and important milestones over the next 12 months. The EBITDA upgrades

are said to reflect operational gearing from the group's B2B offerings, with cost guidance unchanged despite the substantially

stronger revenues.

We see this morning's release as further validation for the investment made into the B2B business over recent years, with

the platform now able to serve a growing number of partners at increasingly profitable scale. B2B outlook commentary in the

statement is upbeat, and given potential for further upside from D2C through brand investment, the group's prospects continue

to look positive in our view.

Details

• Revenue: Expected to be at least £550m for FY27, 17% higher than the £470m midpoint of prior guidance and 20% above RBCe.

This would represent a 40% increase YoY.

• Costs: FY27 operating expense (ex var rem) guide remuneration unchanged at c£280m.

• EBITDA: Expected to be £250m (implied margin of 45%). This would be 62% higher than our estimate and more than double