Anchor Report: Global Batteries - ESS, robot batteries to drive value

Research evidence excerpt

Anchor Report: Global Batteries - ESS, robot batteries to drive value

etration rate forecasts of frank.fan@nomura.com

23%/32%/40% in 2026F/30F/35F. We expect China to command 65%/78% share in +852 2252 2195

global EV/battery markets in 2026F. Outside of China, China’s battery market share

currently stands at 58%, driven by superior cost leadership (LFP [lithium iron phosphate]

chemistry), unrivalled scale, and supply-chain integration. Korean batteries (15% of global

market share) remain competitive, in our view, in premium applications such as high-

nickel chemistries (long range cars), cylindrical 4680 cells (Tesla), silicon-anode

technologies, and US/EU localization strategies.

ESS battery – China leads global market share, Korea/Japan gain share in the US

We build in global ESS battery (BESS) demand growth of 17%/11% p.a. over 2026-30F/

2026-35F to 1.3TWh in 2035F (2026F: 490GWh; 50% of 2030F EV batteries; US BESS

demand of 113GWh/194GWh for 2026F/2030F; 14% p.a. growth over 2026-30F), driven

by renewables integration, grid modernization, and AI datacenter power demand. We

expect global BESS demand to be fueled by grid applications (70-80% of demand;

renewables integration), and AIDC demand. China should remain dominant, in our view,

through its leadership in LFP and increasingly through sodium batteries (NiB), with the

latter potentially representing 15-20% of 2030F ESS demand. CATL (300750 CH, Buy),

BYD (002594 CH, Buy), Hithium (unlisted), EVE (300014 CH, Buy) are leading players.

We observe increasing penetration of Korean batteries into North America (mostly into the

US), where tariff barriers, localization requirements, and AIDC investments are creating

opportunities for non-Chinese suppliers. Japan’s leading battery maker Panasonic (6752