New Orbit

Research evidence excerpt

New Orbit

Macquarie Equity Research Northern Star

Preliminary 4Q results were a beat

• NST released prelim sales of 433koz in 4QFY26, a 45koz (+12%) beat vs VA and a 58koz

(+15%) beat vs MQ estimates. Gold sales beat across all production hubs, with key call-outs

Kal (+18koz / +8% beat) and Yandal (+16koz / +15% beat). Pogo also performed strongly

(+12koz / +17% beat).

• NST reported closing cash & bullion of A$1.26bn; the breakdown of this cash/bullion

is not directly comparable to VA/MQe which estimated closing cash (excl bullion) of A

$646mn/652mn.

• During the quarter, NST purchased A$129m of shares as part of its A$500m on-market

share buyback program.

Figure 1 - NST preliminary 4Q results

Source: Macquarie Research, NST, VA, Jul-26

KCGM timeframe reiterated

• NST reiterated that stage 1 of the KCGM mill expansion (13Mt ⇒ 27Mtpa capacity) remains

on track for commissioning in early FY27, which is in line with previous outlook. However,

NST did not reiterate its target of 23Mtpa for FY27 which has been previously targeted.

• Stage 2 (consolidation of the Gidji facility to new Fimiston mill) is on track for CY26-end.

Where do we sit heading into FY27?

• We forecast FY27 production of 1,678koz which is 2% below VA estimates. We forecast

KCGM output of 623koz which is 6% below VA and based on our throughput forecasts of

17.7Mt (versus VA at 19Mt) and below NST outlook of 23Mt.

• We forecast FY27 AISC of A$2,981/oz which is 3% above VA estimates and 10% above the

mid-point of FY26 guidance of A$2,700/oz. Our forecasts account for labour cost inflation

(+5% YoY) and diesel cost escalation.

• Interestingly, NST indicated that commissioning timing will determine future gold sales

guidance at KCGM, so in our view we may not get FY27 guidance until late-August.