JNJ: Q2 Preview—Q2 Expectations Seem Appropriate; We Expect 2026 Guidance to Remain Intact

Research evidence excerpt

JNJ: Q2 Preview—Q2 Expectations Seem Appropriate; We Expect 2026 Guidance to Remain Intact

Johnson & Johnson Equity Research

JNJ 2Q26 PREVIEW

Our Q2 US Pharma forecast seems reasonable overall. We model Q2 US Pharma sales of $9.80B,

up 6.9% yr/yr adjusted operational (+17.8% ex-Stelara vs. +15.7% in Q1). Based on IQVIA data, we

see potential upside from Inlexzo and Caplyta with Icotyde off to a strong start in the initial weeks.

Our Q2 forecast generally seems reasonable for most of the remaining key products, including the

multiple myeloma franchise (Darzalex/Tecvayli/Talvey), Rybrevant/Lazcluze, Tremfya, Spravato and

Xarelto. Globally, we estimate Q2 Pharma sales of $16.07B (vs. consensus of $16.09B) or up 5.6% yr/yr

adjusted operational (+12.7% ex-Stelara vs. +14.8% in Q1).

We expect a slight improvement in Q2 MedTech performance. We model Q2 MedTech sales of

$8.97B, just below consensus of $9.02B. Our forecast represents adjusted operational growth of 4.9%,

slightly better than +4.7% in Q1 and against tougher comps (+1.3% in Q1 '25 vs. +4.1% in Q2 '25). We

note that yr/yr comps get tougher in all four key business units from Q1 to Q2. JNJ expects the impact

from the Surgical SKU exit (began 1Q25) to worsen through the year. In addition, there was some

stocking in EP OUS in Q1 '26 that bleeds out through the remainder of 2026. JNJ's view on procedure

volume has not changed (i.e., no impact from ACA subsidies expiring) and the company continues to

expect adjusted operational medtech growth to accelerate in 2026 vs. 2025 excluding the extra week

(2025 was 4.3%).

Figure 1 - JNJ Quarterly Sales Growth by Business

Adjusted Operational Growth* Ex-FX Growth

Key Business Segments 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26E 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26E