Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 125" Patricot

Research evidence excerpt

Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 125" Patricot

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Global Oil and Gas Equities

GlobalHormuz tracker: day 125

Oil Companies, Major

Henri Patricot, CFA

Reopening unfolding Analyst

The reopening of Hormuz is proceeding relatively smoothly so far and in the sequence to henri.patricot@ubs.com

be expected. After an initial spike in outflows, we are seeing a drop as floating storage +33-14-888 3033

gets closer to normal. Inbound tankers have outstripped outbound tankers for several Nayoung Kim

days now. We are seeing an uptick in crude loadings and this higher number of inbound Analyst

tankers should support a further increase over the next few weeks. Across the whole nayoung.kim@ubs.com

region, and including bypass routes, we estimate that crude and product loadings are +44-20-7568 4010

now at >60% of pre-conflict levels, vs. ~30% a month ago. Joshua Stone

Analyst

Slowdown in outbound flows yesterday joshua.stone@ubs.com

+44-20-7901 5588

The latest UBS Evidence Lab data (> Access Dataset) show a slowdown in flows out of

the Gulf yesterday as oil in floating storage gets closer to normal, only about 20M bbls of Josh Silverstein

crude above Jan-Feb average levels (Figure 6MidleEastGulfcrudeoilonwater(Mbls)). The number of oil and gas tanker Analyst

crossings was down to 14 yesterday from 18 the previous day, still skewed inbound with josh.silverstein@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3513

9 tankers entering the Gulf including 4 crude tankers (Figure 1Oil&gastankerspasingthroughtheStraitofHormuz,innumberofshipsenteringandexitingtheGulf). This is up vs. the June

average of 7 crossings, still well below February’s c.50 crossings. Volumes dipped to only Tom Allen

3.3Mboe/d yesterday, vs.