APAC Economic Comment "ASEAN Weekly: Indonesia PMI and trade, Thailand IP..."

Research evidence excerpt

APAC Economic Comment "ASEAN Weekly: Indonesia PMI and trade, Thailand IP..."

Global Research

3 July 2026ab

APAC Economic Comment Economics

AsiaASEAN Weekly: Indonesia PMI and trade,

Thailand IP and private consumption Claire Long

Economist

claire.long@ubs.com

+65 6495 7426

Indonesia: Weaker data on PMI and trade balance Grace Lim

Indonesia’s manufacturing PMI fell to 46.9 in June from 50.0 in May, marking the Economist

weakest reading in a year. Softer domestic demand, declining export orders, and rising grace-k.lim@ubs.com

+65-6495 5965

input costs prompted firms to cut production, employment, and purchasing activity.

(link) The sharp deterioration reinforces our view that domestic growth is likely to slow

further in H2 as weaker sentiment, a contractionary fiscal impulse, and the lagged

effects of monetary tightening increasingly weigh on activity. The weaker PMI was

accompanied by a deterioration in the external sector. Exports fell 5.7% y/y in May,

reflecting weaker commodity shipments, particularly copper and iron ores, while

imports surged 22.2% y/y, driven by a sharp rise in oil and gas imports (+70.8% y/y) and

continued strength in non-oil imports, particularly plastics, fertilizer and aircraft. As a

result, Indonesia recorded a US$1.6bn trade deficit, its first since April 2020,

underscoring mounting pressure on the current account as higher energy costs widen

external imbalances.UBS remains cautious on the rupiah. While we expect the current

account deficit to peak at around 1.8% of GDP in Q2 amid higher oil prices before

narrowing thereafter (to 0.9% of GDP in H2), and financial markets have been

supported by US$1.2bn of net government bond inflows in June following BI's

cumulative 100bp of rate hikes, compressed US–Indonesia rate differentials and