Transurban "Winter housekeeping" (Neutral) Fromyhr

Research evidence excerpt

Transurban "Winter housekeeping" (Neutral) Fromyhr

diluted) (A$)

From To % ch Cons.

Next catalysts NSW toll reform, then FY26 result 06/26E 0.22 0.22 -1 0.16

We expect the substantial resolution to NSW toll reform to be announced within weeks, 06/27E 0.26 0.26 -0 0.27

prior to the release of the FY26 financial results (due 13 Aug). In general we expect the 06/28E 0.33 0.34 1 0.29

outcome to be valuation and cash flow neutral, as we understand these principles have

Andre Fromyhrbeen prioritised throughout discussions among parties. This may include changes in tolls

Analyst

(e.g. reductions in western roads) but also new revenue sources (e.g. bidirectional on the andre.fromyhr@ubs.com

ED or state-owned harbour crossings). At the FY26 result, we expect Transurban to +61-3-9242-6470

provide FY27 distribution guidance - we forecast 73cps (consensus 72.5cps) although

Bradley Beckettnot quite fully covered by FCF with some smoothing through the WGT ramp-up and

transition of M5 concession to the WestConnex structure. bradley.beckett@ubs.com

+61-3-9242 6008

Maintain Neutral

Rae El Adam

Transurban appears fairly priced, in our view, with the return outlook limited to yield of Associate Analyst

~5%. We estimate the implied equity IRR is currently 7.8%. We're slightly more rae.el-adam@ubs.com

optimistic than consensus on distributions and traffic growth in FY27, but we're more +61-3-9242 6180

conservative on opex and interest costs.

Valuation: 12m price target $14.50 per share (previously $14.40)

Our 12-month price target of $14.50 is based on our DCF sum-of-parts valuation of

$14.08 rolled forward at the cost of equity less expected distributions. The net ~flat

update reflects softer traffic, the realised value of the A25 stake but removal of future