Thermal Coal "Near-term upside vs medium-term headwinds" Allsop

Research evidence excerpt

Thermal Coal "Near-term upside vs medium-term headwinds" Allsop

Powered by Lab Global3 JulyResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

Thermal Coal Equities

GlobalNear-term upside vs medium-term headwinds

Basic Materials

Myles Allsop

Prices: near-term upside risk but challenges still medium-term Analyst

Since the Middle East conflict started in Feb-26, thermal coal prices (high & low CV) in myles.allsop@ubs.com

the Pacific & Atlantic have lifted by 20-40%; this has been driven by higher gas prices +44-20-7568 1693

and supply constraints from Indonesia. The Middle East ceasefire has resulted in TTF & George Eadie

high-CV coal prices moderating, while low-CV coal prices have held firm. Near-term, we Analyst

see upside risk to thermal coal prices with demand set to pick up seasonally with george.eadie@ubs.com

summer cooling (impact magnified by a potential super El Niño event) and supply +1-646-996 4596

inelastic & potentially disrupted by Indonesia's new centralised export policy. However, Lachlan Shaw

we expect prices to trend back to pre-conflict/cost-support levels during 2027 with gas Analyst

prices under pressure from new LNG supply (note) & coal demand set to fall faster than lachlan.shaw@ubs.com

supply due to ongoing decarbonisation trends. Latest estimates suggest the 75th +61-3-9242 6387

percentile in the cost curve has lifted to ~US$110/t (gNEWC eq). Sharon Ding

Analyst

Supply: Indonesia tightening low-CV supply; high-CV supply stable sharon.ding@ubs.com

+852-2971 6284

Low-energy seaborne supply has been disrupted materially in 2026 by govt intervention

in Indonesia (lower production quotas, centralised export agency etc), while high-energy Daniel Major

supply has been broadly stable out of Australia, South Africa, Russia & Colombia. Analyst