LatAm Transport and Capital Goods "Daily Take-Off: EMBJ, RENT, MOVI, VAMO,..."

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Transport and Capital Goods "Daily Take-Off: EMBJ, RENT, MOVI, VAMO,..."

the total market of autos, light commercials, trucks and

buses to grow +7.9% (from +3.0% at the start of the year), with autos at +8.8%, while

keeping negative full-year projections for trucks (-7.8%) and buses (-9.2%).

Potential Impact: Neutral for BZ Car Rentals and VAMO. Slightly positive for TUPY

and RAPT, as trucks and truck trailers returned to YoY growth with the support of

Move Brasil 2, and slightly positive for POMO on the recovery in bus licensing; we

note, however, that Fenabrave flags the Move 2 funds as already exhausted, which

supports the still-negative full-year projections for HV.

CPA, VLRS: Engine bottlenecks ground jets and pressure airlines

According to Estadao, the new-generation Leap (CFM International) and GTF (Pratt

& Whitney) engines are requiring more frequent maintenance as their technologies

mature, with engine shop visits taking up to 300 days versus a normal 120, grounding

aircraft for longer. The problem peaked in Mar/25, when 648 aircraft (28% of the

global fleet equipped with the new P&W engines) were parked awaiting

maintenance; the ratio is now 23%, but IATA expects it to rise again as OEMs promise

record deliveries, with annual engine shop visits projected to grow from 600-800 in

2025 to over 5,000 by 2040 for the Leap and from 1,000 to over 2,000 for the GTF.

Potential Impact: Marginally positive for Copa, Volaris. While engine-related

groundings remain an operational constraint, we believe the current supply

bottleneck should act as an additional driver of capacity rationality across the

industry. This is particularly relevant after a sequence of months of elevated fuel

prices, partly driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which pressured