MSM: 3Q26 Comments Ahead of the Call

Research evidence excerpt

MSM: 3Q26 Comments Ahead of the Call

Electrical Equipment & Multi-Industry

FLASH

FLASH: MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT (MSM) July 1, 2026

MSM: 3Q26 Comments Ahead of the Call Rating:

Peer PerformIt's a comfortable beat. MSM reported headline EPS of $1.43, ahead of our Price:

high end $1.31 estimate and $1.28 Street with sales growth of 7.8% (vs. 7% $118.95

WRe), gross margin of 41.1% (vs. 40% WRe) and adjusted OM of 10.6% vs. 10.2% Price Target:

NAWRe and guidance of 9.7-10.3%. Overall, we mark this as a 7c core beat (+10c

vs. Street). Management called out outperformance in Core customers (+8%), Source: FactSet, Wolfe Research

with encouraging signs of improvement in National Accounts (+7%). It is also Priced as of 06/30/26

encouraging to see continued execution on SG&A efficiency (+3.6% Y/Y) in the

face of accelerating sales growth (volumes inflected modestly positive during the

quarter).

4QFY26 guidance calls for 6.5-8.5% ADS, which compares to 7% WRe, but it

seems like buy-side expectations were lower (5-7% per our recent investor survey): Nigel Coe, CPA; CFA

guidance at the midpoint calls for relatively stable Q/Q sales performance vs. a ncoe@wolferesearch.com (646) 582-9259

tendency for a modest Q/Q decline. Management expects price to moderate from View Nigel’s Research

the +720bps achieved in 3Q26 (vs. 6-7% bar) as we start to lap prior year actions. View MSM Model

The midpoint of the range assumes modest improvement in the 50bps of volume View Comp Table

growth achieved in 3Q. Elijah Muller

emuller@wolferesearch.com

4QFY26 Operating Margin guidance calls for 10-10.8%, which is comfortably 646-582-9276

ahead of 10.1% WRe. Guidance calls for the "typical" 40-50bps Q/Q decline in Brad Hewitt

gross margin, i.e.