Mobico Group Plc: Next stop? Execution

Research evidence excerpt

Mobico Group Plc: Next stop? Execution

Turnaround progress; cash conversion test

Turnaround case is taking shape

We think Mobico is moving into a more defined turnaround and de-risking phase, with

management now focused on improving profitability, cash generation and operational

performance. Key initiatives include the Simplify for Success programme, which targets

£75m of in-year cost savings in 2026 and a £100m run-rate by year-end, and tighter

capital discipline with capex targeted at £120m. The recent agreement with the German

PTAs also provides greater visibility over one of the group's most problematic

businesses, although management's 2026 adjusted operating profit guidance of £195-

210m currently excludes any benefit from the settlement.

Next test is cash conversion and earnings visibility

This marks a shift from the portfolio clean-up over the past year, including the NASB

(North American school bus) disposal, sale of NXTS, exit from CARTA and integration of

UK Coach into ALSA. While these actions have simplified the group, the investment case

now depends on execution. It is unclear still whether higher EBIT can be converted into

sustainable free cash flow and whether challenges in businesses such as German Rail

and North America have eased sufficiently to improve earnings visibility.

Segment outlook improving, though uncertainty remains

ALSA: Growth remains resilient, supported by Spanish demand, public transport

initiatives and diversification, but margins are likely to ease as growth shifts into lower-

margin activities and concession renewals reset terms. The key debate is whether

utilisation, efficiencies and diversification can offset long-haul concession dilution.

North America: WeDriveU should improve as WMATA (Washington metropolitan area