Japan Financial Sector: BofA financials weekly, 3 July 2026

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Japan Financial Sector: BofA financials weekly, 3 July 2026

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Japan Financial Sector

BofA financials weekly, 3 July 2026

Industry Overview

03 July 2026

Banks (Shinichiro Nakamura) Equity

(1) Earnings sensitivity to+25bp parallel shift in yen interest rates (deposit beta 50%): In Japan

terms of EPS impact vs FY3/27 NP guidance (over next 1 year), the positive impact is Banks, Brokerage, Insurance & Other

largest in the order of Resona/Yokohama/Rakuten/Chiba. Over next 3 years, sensitivity Nonbank

rises at regional banks with large fixed-rate loan / yen bond balances, and the positive

Shinichiro Nakamura >>

impact becomes largest in the order of Resona/Yokohama/Rakuten/Chiba/Shiga. We Research Analyst

assume a deposit beta 50% to the policy rate (SMTG 75% / SBI Shinsei 65% / Rakuten BofAS Japan

+81 3 6225 8824

55%), which is a somewhat conservative estimate vs the current deposit beta (around shinichiro.nakamura@bofa.com

40-45% for most majors / regionals), but there is a risk that it will rise further depending Natsumu Tsujino, CFA >>

on intensifying competition to acquire deposits and expansion in the MMF/MRF market Research Analyst

BofAS Japan

size. The negative impact of expansion in unrealized losses on yen bonds on BPS is +81 3 6225-8720

largest in the order of JPB/Shizuoka/Rakuten/77. While steepening of the yen yield curve natsumu.tsujino@bofa.com

can be said to be positive for investors holding to maturity, there is a need to monitor to Yuji Kobayashi >> Research Analyst

some extent the impact on JPB’s capital base. (2) Earnings sensitivity when the FF rate BofAS Japan

is cut by -50bp: JPB’s EPS impact is positive at +8.0% vs FY3/27 NP guidance, followed +81yuji.kobayashi@bofa.com3 6225 8791

by slight improvement at Seven/Aozora.