Wedbush Morning Call - Jul 06 2026 7:00AM

Research evidence excerpt

Wedbush Morning Call - Jul 06 2026 7:00AM

MORNING CALL - July 6, 2026

Focus Research

HEALTHCARE

Abivax S.A. (ABVX)

Rating: NEUTRAL, 12-Month Price Target: $140.00, Price: $144.65

Have No Fear of Perfection—You’ll Never Reach It

ABVX shares have rebounded to pre-Phase 3 maintenance data levels on investor relief that malignancies reported in patients

at the most efficacious dose level of 50 mg are “merely” at rates that have resulted in black box warnings for the Jak inhibitors,

including market leader Rinvoq. While we view the ultimate label as a discussion for roughly 1.5 years from now, we note

two concepts can simultaneously exist: 1) obefazimod 50 mg dosing is associated with malignancy rates that are equivalent

to the black-boxed Jak class and that 2) as evidenced by the Jak class sales in IBD, reported malignancies at that level are no

great inhibitor of sales.

Another factor in the share price rebound is the constant refrain from ABVX bulls that the Phase 3 results are “best in disease.”

This claim is not true. The Phase 3 results do show statistically significant induction rates in heavily pre-treated patients,

an impressive result. Perhaps in those patients, post-Jak, that claim does ring true. But absent an active treatment in that

setting, it is akin to being the world’s loudest whisper. In our view, a more relevant comparison for both the clinical results

and ultimate market are patients who have an inadequate response to a biologic therapy and have not yet been treated with

a Jak inhibitor. Presumably this is the setting where obefazimod and Jaks will settle their duel for market share, and frankly,

is the most interesting market for investors. Fortunately we have induction data in this particular patient group as provided